Toplines
The GOP Senate Primary has been flipped on its head since December when President Trump endorsed America First Conservative Bernie Moreno. Now, the only thing standing between President Trump’s choice and defeating Sherrod Brown is one thing: awareness of the Trump endorsement.
- 50% of GOP primary voters are aware of President Trump’s endorsement of Bernie Moreno.
- At 75-80% awareness, the race is essentially over.
- Cleveland/Columbus/Cincinnati are the critical markets to drive this awareness.
- In November/December, the Moreno campaign ran 3000 GRPS behind 2 messages in Cleveland/Columbus/Dayton prior to having the endorsement that catapulted him into the lead; since then, the campaign has run 1500 GRPS in January behind the endorsement statewide.
- The Moreno campaign’s focus will be on outermarkets, where they have run significantly less advertising and the awareness of the Trump endorsement far lags the bigger markets.
- The next two week sprint, with a powerful “Trumps’ Choice for Ohio” message extolling President Trump’s endorsement of Moreno will spike Moreno’s image and ballot even further, putting the race essentially out of reach.
- Despite a $3 million infusion from his SuperPAC, LaRose has blown a 20 point lead in this race and is cratering fast.
- Dolan has equally squandered resources, spending nearly $4 million to stay the same in all public polling – his message is weak and he simply doesn’t connect with GOP Primary voters.
- That leaves him one avenue – tearing down the eventual nominee with senseless attack ads.
- The time to press the Moreno Trump endorsement is now, as Matt Dolan, the leading Never Trumper in the race, has made clear he is focused on tearing down President Trump’s choice in Ohio with his $6.9 million warchest.
Conclusion
Once voters learn of Trump’s endorsement, Bernie shoots to 44% on the ballot, essentially ending the race. Driving awareness of the Trump endorsement over the next two weeks is the most important strategic objective for victory.